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There is a boom within the online betting industry and also the kind of profits many sites are enjoying now is unimaginable. Online casinos are not to be left behind, as there's been a rapid explosion of these as well. The truth is, online poker gives gambling, a glamour quotient by roping in celebrities for high profile tournaments. It indicates reaching out to a whole new market in itself.
There are innumerable so-called gambling experts prepared to dish out information of their systems to 'beat the bookie' or to make a second income from gambling, for a price of course. I won't do that. I will simply give you information regarding bookmakers, odds and gambling that you can use (or forget) when you see fit.
The very first thing to mention is the fact that the great majority of folks who engage in gambling will be net losers over-time. This really is the very reason you'll find numerous bookmakers making so much money throughout the world.
While bookmakers can sometimes take big hits, for example if a favourite wins the Grand National, they spread their risk so widely and they setup markets that incorporate a margin, so they will always generate a profit over the medium to long term, if not the short-run. Which is, as long because they got their sums right.
When setting their odds for a particular event, bookmakers must first evaluate the probability of that event occurring. To do this they us various statistical models according to data collated over years, sometime decades, about the sport and team/competitor in question. Bear in mind, if sport was 100% predictable, it would soon lose its appeal, and while the bookies are often spot on with their assessments of the probability of an event, they may be sometimes way off the mark, mainly because a match or contest goes against conventional wisdom and statistical likelihood.
Just look at any sport and you will find an occasion when the underdog triumphs against all the odds, literally. Wimbledon beating the then mighty Liverpool within the FA Cup Final of 1988, by way of example, or perhaps the United States beating the then mighty USSR at ice hockey within the 1980 Olympics are two instances of when you could have got handsome odds on the underdog. And could have won a good wedge.
The big bookmakers spend a lot of time and expense ensuring they possess the right odds that ensure they consider the perceived probability of the event, and then add that extra little bit that gives them the profit margin. So if an event has a probability of, say, 1/3, the odds that reflect that probability could be 2/1. Which is, two to one against that event occurring.
In contrast, a bookie who set these odds would, over-time, break even (assuming their stats are correct). So instead they will set the odds at, say, 6/4. Within this way they have built in the margin that ensures, over time, they're going to benefit from people betting on this selection. It's the exact same concept as a casino roulette.
Just how can you spot the occasions when bookmakers have got it wrong? Well, it's easier said than done, but far from impossible.
One way is to get great at mathematical modelling and setup a model that takes under consideration as many of the variables that affect the outcome of an event as is possible. The problem with this tactic is that however complex the model, and however all inclusive it appears, it can never account for the minutiae of variables relating to individual human states of mind. Whether a golfer manages to hole a major-winning five foot putt on the 18th at St Andrews it's as much down to their concentration as to the weather or day of the week. Also, the maths can start getting pretty darn complicated.
Alternatively you can find yourself a sporting niche. Bookmakers will concentrate their resources on the events that produce them the most money, generally found to be football (soccer), American football and horse racing. So trying to beat the bookies while betting on a Manchester United v Chelsea match will be tough. Unless you work for one of the clubs, or are married to among the players or managers, it really is very likely the bookmaker setting the odds may have additional information than you.
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